Who am I not.

An interesting thread was started on APN forum lately. It is worth saying a few more words. 

Maybe preppers are taken as weird people. But that is a trap of democracy - majority do not means to be right automatically. In other words - even if you will vote for sunny holiday they may not be sunny. "To want" is not enough in many matters. People are also desperate not to take responsibility for themselves and others. That is why they vote for more control , more social, more "free" things delivered by governments. From neutral point of view they are weird because they believe in a power of paper, they believe that if something is voted and written in paper or law - nothing can change it. They are wrong - as much as possible. Last century took us in another dimension of coexistence. People became specialists and they are mainly worth nothing without all the support. Support I mean people, firms, processes which involve the need of usage of specialists. Especially financial sector is very dependent on other people within this sector itself. Financial specialist as he is today, was worthless in the begining of XX century and will be worthless when he will be dismissed after financial sector will shrink or SHTF. That is why I think that people today have new religion - they believe that it has to be - this way or other but has to. They go on strike when salaries are cut or people fired. They think that everything should be as it is and no worse because so.  No explanations, no knowledge - just believing in omnipotence of governments and politicians "who promised everything".

Preppers are not believers. They are people who do not trust that we can forget who we are and trust that things will last because of our will. We do not let think others for ourselves. We want to decide. We care and we just live. What others called preparing - it is just living. What they call living being totally unprepared - it is like a party. Preppers are thinking not only about self-sustainable lifestyle as it is thought but we are for widely understood freedom which is taken in the name of so called "justice" and "need" under the codename "security", "terrorism", "health" or other stupid explanation for the masses.

But carnival never last forever and what is gonna be when the party is over ?...

Some numbers

from article posted on : http://venturehacks.com/articles/speculative-return

The most interesting part showing where we are and what to think about the future. Let the numbers speak...

"2001-2020 will have negative speculative returns

Okay, its 2010. Could the speculative return dynamics since 2001 have ended? Umm — probably not. Take a look at this table of important drivers that compare 1981 (the start of the mega 20 year bull period) to now.

                                                                       1981         Today
CPI                                                                  8.9%        -1.3%
30-year bond                                                    13.65%     4.24%
Fed Funds rate                                                 12.00%     0.25%
Highest marginal tax rate                                 69%           35%
Highest LT capital gains tax rate                      28%           15%
Home ownership rate                                       65.2%       67.4%
Household debt as % of income                         56.1%        114.4%
% of families with retirement accts                   20.4%        52.6%
Personal savings rate                                       11.4%         3.0%
Mortgage debt as % of disposable inc                43.1%         95%
Baby Boomer age range                                   17-35         45-63 
Federal Deficit as % of Nominal GFP                  2.5%          11.2% est
PCE (consumer spend) as % of GDP                   61.9%         70.7%
US debt as % of GDP                                         32.2%        85.8%
Household debt as % of GDP                              47.2%         96.8%


To me, these are very sobering statistics. They paint a completely different picture than at the start of the last bull cycle of 1982-2000. My judgment is that these statistics are going to seriously suppress speculative return. The -6.9% of 2001-2005 will get worse and total returns will suffer. In 2021, statistics will show that the 2001-2020 time period had good fundamental returns. But horrific speculative returns."

(...)

"In closing, here’s the “New York Daily Investment News” front page from the early part of the Great Depression to remind us that history may not repeat exactly. But it does rhyme."

Where to hell are you going America ?

From time to time we (me and my friends) are discussing here the whole situation. What is now obvious for us is that in the nearest future some bad things can happen. Stabilization is very hard to be kept, further growth is almost impossible according to the fact that too many roots based on virtual financing had been cut. There are three possible scenario for US and Euro zones. 

1. Slowing down. Very delicate way to stabilization on the lower level. Bit by bit, step by step another weeds will be removed. Banks, institutions, loans - whole financial world will shrink to its normal and necessary size. More things must have its real value. More value must be added to creating real things. Maybe some day we will return to the currency based on gold. There is one thing which is against that scenario - it is called democracy. No one will take a responsibility for starting this long term metamorphose and fail to win another election. We are far away from its foundation - to be a politician is now a job, nothing more, such as janitor, postmen. No special abilities needed, just nice smile. No attitude or vision - just telling good things, promising even more.

2. Dark ages for western civilization. One day someone will call. Maybe China ? Maybe some international bank ? It will collapse US Dollar. Lately I read a lot of articles that shows that in US financial corporations are the tail which wag the dog. Wag the Fed, government, SEC and whatever else. When I read about rescuing AiG, about toxic bonds issued by Goldman, about unclear support for financial corporations given in billions by Fed and others, about Markopolos who nine for nine years was attempting to convince SEC that Madoff is gambler till it was too late I have clear vision that no one is controlling "them" at all. They have all the money and other things needed to say to everyone that we are idiots to think that they can be cheating or collapse in any predictable future. They made money its religion where nothing else exist and profit is all that matter. Just tell me why do we observe so many speculation bubbles? Can you give me other explanations except this one that its a kind of religion? They do things that only believers can do. In a way that only believers can do. They are such arrogant as only prophets can be. The right is on their side ! Till the end comes... And the end is near. Just too many people doing nothing - just multiplying numbers on their IBMs creating nothing extra, just taking bit by bit fees from other part of organism called economy. It is cancer that some time ago was very helpful - now it can kill the whole organism.

3. Neverending story. Fed can print USD faster than financial part of this world is going to fraud them. The inflation will increase, maybe even it will be 10000% year or two. Then you will just cut 4 zeros from USD and start again ? Here in Poland we did that and we are still alive :) We survived according to western countries where our products and services could have been sold. You will have your chance thanks to... China. And India. They will absorb all that you can not afford but can produce. That is why your government is putting so much interest on China - wise investment. 

These are the main three scenarios which are possible to happen any day. We do not know everything so we have to speculate. There is only one thing important in that all - just to be prepared. Having known the possibilities it would be unwise not to care about them. Soon we will think about best strategies for all the scenarios. The more common things for all the scenarios we will find the better strategy will be. 

I would like to discuss it with you - the insiders. Have you any suggestions ? Advices ?

About pleasures again. Weekend ahead.

Just a few words about these little things that awaits me very soon.

I've just bought two starters for spring beer : European Lager and Stout.  And a pack of caps. High time to renew my stock - just a few bottle left.

Tomorrow I will bottle my 2009 raspberry dessert wine. It was clarified 3rd time and is ready to be put in 0,75l volume green glass prisons. It is definitely good. Deep purple, smooth taste and rich aroma of many things with domination of raspberries.

Also tomorrow a freshly made ham, liverwurst and sausage awaits me in the country where my neighbor prepares it. The best liverwurst I've ever eaten with a mass of black pepper.

I like that stuff, things made by myself or people from neighborhood. I like them due to their taste, in fact you can change it in many ways. Due to the fact that I know well what they are made of in terms of ingredients used. Last time I found it also very useful from other point of view. When I put it all together - the things I like, things that I am worried about and things that I am thinking of. After summarizing I found that I'm just a prepper.

It's nice to write for people who find pleasure in the same things. For you. Cheers ! 

Pleasure - preppers little treasure.

In the tough times everyone will have the same problems to solve. Preppers will be a step ahead due to some preparations made. But I think that you should be not a step but a bit more in the front. Think about things that are not so necessary but very important. Just think that the healthy spirit creates healthy body. To bring it to life you should care about your "evenings". After all the needs are indulged and you  have some time to sit and rest have something extra for you and people you are preparing to shelter. Have your little pleasures, extra prizes for being prepared. I like coffee and for sure an extra kilo or two coffee beans will be kept in my storage, and some sweets - I love them, children love them, everyone love the sweets :)

Maybe I won't be able to run my coffeemaker so I always have some instant coffee. It's normally used in the kitchen as an addition to cakes so I do not store things that I would have to dispose. It's important, as one of the forums topic last reminded, to watch whether it is prepping or just hoarding.

Do not forget about your families. Pack of playing cards, scrabble, maybe book with sudoku ? Maybe its good idea to have your music collection stored as mp3s on a small flash card ? DVD with fairy tales ? 

You know what it is. For sure. Just think what normally gives you and other little pleasures and care to make them your little treasures in the hard time. A bit of laughter usually is more important then than a can of beans in tomato soup.

Side walls.

I decided to use clinker as the finish of my side walls. Why is that ? It is not cheap - for sure. But it has many advantages from prepper point of view. This is the only material I found that it can be said : once done - forever done. I need to insulate walls - and it could be easily done with usage of expanded polystyrene. But in the country you need something strong just because children playing ball in the garden. I could cover it with double layer of reinforcement net but always I would finish in the point that I have to renew paintings every five years and plaster every 10-15 years (depends on condition). So from the long term point of view it occurs to be more expensive than once made clinker wall insulated with glass fiber wool.

That is exact usage of rule no. 1. Buy best available material in terms of technology and quality. I am not going to pay for modern colors or design - it is not a class A bureau in the very downtown. I need just red bricks. :) I will buy ordinary clinker and I even put a reservation on second quality. But not second in parameters - they are 2nd quality just because of their look. I will buy not so perfectly shaped bricks. And to be sincere - this is another advantage for me because renewing old countryside house with perfectly shaped bricks would look odd. Kind of plastic with no soul. So what is disadvantage for one is good for me. I will get this clinker in the price of the ordinary bricks ! 

I will use glass fiber wool to insulate instead of polystyrene according to its total incombustibility. Much safer ! 

So I will have an old style reinforced and safely insulated side walls in the price of much worse solutions. And the only thing I will do in the future is to clean them - personally I hope that with a little dirt they will look even better, old-stylish ;)

One thing you have to remember is to use special kind of mortar for clinker.

Distillation set - short introduction.

(I used images from wikipedia)

Below there are schemes of less and more complicated set.

Simple distillation set  : 1. Source of heat, 2. Distillation flask, 3. Still head, 4. Thermometer, 5. Condenser, 6. Cooling  inlet, 7. Cooling fluid outlet, 8. Receiving flask, 9. Vacuum/gas inlet, 10. Still receiver

Laboratory display of distillation: 1: A heating device 2: Still pot 3: Still head 4: Thermometer/Boiling point temperature 5: Condenser 6: Cooling water in 7: Cooling water out 8: Distillate/receiving flask 9: Vacuum/gas inlet 10: Still receiver 11: Heat control 12: Stirrer speed control 13: Stirrer/heat plate 14: Heating (Oil/sand) bath 15: Stirring means e.g.(shown), anti-bumping granules or mechanical stirrer 16: Cooling bath.

For the preppers I would suggest the very simple set. 

1. Distillation flasks with different volumes. I would suggest 250 mL, 1 l., 2 l.. All equipped with 29/32 joints. 

2. Still head (short one with no refining shelfs) - in case of lack of thermometer you can always use stopper. 29/32 joints to flask and condenser, 14 joint for thermometer

3. Condensers (1 with water as cooler "Liebig", 1 air cooled "Vigreux") of course with 2 x 29/32 joints.

4. Still receiver - yes - 2 x 29/32 joints

5. Receiver flask- you can use distillation flask - usually smaller than distillation one.

Options and suggestions:

For purifying substances from solids or high-boiled liquids just use the simple set.

For refining if needed (when distilled liquids has similar boiling point) you can use Vigreux between distillation flask and still head.

For extraction of substances from ig. herbs in temperature of boiling put condenser vertically directly into distillation flask

When purifying change receiving flask after first drops of condensed liquid or when the needed temperature is achieved, change again when the temperature starts rising again and exceeds the boiling temperature of desired product.

! Always use fresh anti-bumping granules made from crushed ceramic to avoid explosive-boiling. Especially dealing with water will end up quickly with contamination of distillate with mixture from distillation flask.

When the source of heat is weak or you want to perform gentle distillation you can shield the top of the flask and the still head (aluminum foil, piece of non-inflammable fabric)

! Remember that there are inflammable liquids (the most of !) and avoid using open fire as a source of heat.

Buying thermometer ended with 14 joint it should be best with range from -10 deg. C up to +250 deg. C

Buying glass try to buy a new one - boronic or other new composition - they are more resistant to temperature changing and breakage.