poniedziałek, 8 marca 2010

Where to hell are you going America ?

From time to time we (me and my friends) are discussing here the whole situation. What is now obvious for us is that in the nearest future some bad things can happen. Stabilization is very hard to be kept, further growth is almost impossible according to the fact that too many roots based on virtual financing had been cut. There are three possible scenario for US and Euro zones. 

1. Slowing down. Very delicate way to stabilization on the lower level. Bit by bit, step by step another weeds will be removed. Banks, institutions, loans - whole financial world will shrink to its normal and necessary size. More things must have its real value. More value must be added to creating real things. Maybe some day we will return to the currency based on gold. There is one thing which is against that scenario - it is called democracy. No one will take a responsibility for starting this long term metamorphose and fail to win another election. We are far away from its foundation - to be a politician is now a job, nothing more, such as janitor, postmen. No special abilities needed, just nice smile. No attitude or vision - just telling good things, promising even more.

2. Dark ages for western civilization. One day someone will call. Maybe China ? Maybe some international bank ? It will collapse US Dollar. Lately I read a lot of articles that shows that in US financial corporations are the tail which wag the dog. Wag the Fed, government, SEC and whatever else. When I read about rescuing AiG, about toxic bonds issued by Goldman, about unclear support for financial corporations given in billions by Fed and others, about Markopolos who nine for nine years was attempting to convince SEC that Madoff is gambler till it was too late I have clear vision that no one is controlling "them" at all. They have all the money and other things needed to say to everyone that we are idiots to think that they can be cheating or collapse in any predictable future. They made money its religion where nothing else exist and profit is all that matter. Just tell me why do we observe so many speculation bubbles? Can you give me other explanations except this one that its a kind of religion? They do things that only believers can do. In a way that only believers can do. They are such arrogant as only prophets can be. The right is on their side ! Till the end comes... And the end is near. Just too many people doing nothing - just multiplying numbers on their IBMs creating nothing extra, just taking bit by bit fees from other part of organism called economy. It is cancer that some time ago was very helpful - now it can kill the whole organism.

3. Neverending story. Fed can print USD faster than financial part of this world is going to fraud them. The inflation will increase, maybe even it will be 10000% year or two. Then you will just cut 4 zeros from USD and start again ? Here in Poland we did that and we are still alive :) We survived according to western countries where our products and services could have been sold. You will have your chance thanks to... China. And India. They will absorb all that you can not afford but can produce. That is why your government is putting so much interest on China - wise investment. 

These are the main three scenarios which are possible to happen any day. We do not know everything so we have to speculate. There is only one thing important in that all - just to be prepared. Having known the possibilities it would be unwise not to care about them. Soon we will think about best strategies for all the scenarios. The more common things for all the scenarios we will find the better strategy will be. 

I would like to discuss it with you - the insiders. Have you any suggestions ? Advices ?

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